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Exclusive: Satellite images reveal accelerating
US military presence in Middle East; Chinese
expert says it is difficult for Washington to
replicate ‘Venezuela model’ in Iran
by Fan Wei and Ding Yazhi
January 30th, 10:39pm
(Global Times)
US President Donald Trump said on social media platform Truth
Social on January 28 local time that a carrier strike group led
by the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is heading toward
Iran, warning that any further US military action against
Iran would be "far worse" than last summer's US strikes
on Iranian nuclear facilities.
On the same day, Ali Shamkhani, senior political adviser and
representative of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei -- wrote
on social media that "any military action by America, from
any source and at any level, will be considered the start
of a war, and the response will be immediate,
comprehensive, and unprecedented, and
will target the aggressor, the heart of
Tel Aviv, and all its supporters"
As the US and Iran --- trade increasingly sharp rhetoric and
publicly showcase military readiness, the Middle East is
facing ....a growing sense of confrontation. Exclusive
satellite images obtained by Global Times indicate
that US forces have markedly stepped up military
movements at bases surrounding Iran in recent
weeks, with enhanced deployments aimed at
both attack and defense.
Analysts told Global Times, that the probability of Washington
opting for a limited, targeted strike against Iran is on the rise.
Whether the US military will ultimately pull the trigger, they
added, will hinge on several critical signals ...in the
coming period.
Satellite images shows more US aircraft
The US and Iran were similarly at daggers drawn... in mid-
January. On January 14, a Reuters report citing Israeli
officials said the US military intervention could come
in the next 24 hours. Qatar said drawdowns from its
Al Udeid air base, the biggest US base in the Middle
East, were "being undertaken in response to the
current regional tensions." Iran, for its part,
temporarily closed its airspace for nearly
five hours on January 15 local time,
according to media reports.
Despite the atmosphere at the time having been amply stoked,
foreign satellite imagery previously obtained by Global Times
from the Chinese satellite remote sensing and geospacing
analysis company MizarVision showed.. that US military
bases in the Middle East — situated on the front line of
any potential conflict — had relatively limited
force deployments.
At Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest comprehensive US
military base in the Middle East, satellite images taken on
January 16 showed that only a small number of KC-135
aerial refueling aircraft and C-17 transport planes were
deployed at the base at the time. Satellite images
taken on January 16 showed five KC-135 aerial
refueling aircraft. At Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar
Satellite images taken on January 16 showed
five KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft at Al
Udeid Air Base in Qatar
At Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, satellite imagery
taken on January 17, likewise, showed that US forces had
deployed only a limited number of KC-135 aerial refueling
aircraft, C-17 transport planes, and F-15 and F-16
fighter jets.
As for naval forces, satellite imagery taken on January 12 -
showed that at the Naval Support Activity Bahrain Base in
Bahrain US forces had deployed only three littoral combat
ships and two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. At the time
the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, was still
operating in the South China Sea.
However, over the past week or so, US military bases in the
Middle East - have undergone noticeable changes. A new
set of foreign satellite images obtained by Global Times
from MizarVision shows that as of January 25, the
number of KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft parked
on the apron at Al Udeid Air Base ------- had
increased significantly.
In addition, another satellite image taken on January 25 shows
new equipment deployments around Al Udeid Air Base. After
analysis, technical personnel from the MizarVision company
assessed that the site is likely a newly installed Patriot air
defense system at the base.
Technical personnel from MizarVision assessed - that satellite
imagery taken on January 25 shows that air defense shelters
around Al Udeid Air Base are equipped with an integrated air
and missile defense system ---- consisting of Patriot missile
launchers, AN/MPQ-65 radar vehicles, & other related units.
Technical personnel from MizarVision assessed - that satellite
imagery taken on January 25 shows that air defense shelters
around Al Udeid Air Base are equipped with an integrated air
and missile defense system, consisting of Patriot missile
launchers, AN/MPQ-65 radar vehicles, and other
related units.
At Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, satellite imagery taken
on January 26 likewise shows increased air defense
deployments. After analyzing the images, technical
personnel from MizarVision company said the base
is suspected of having deployed a Patriot air and
missile defense system.
Technical personnel from MizarVision assessed that satellite
imagery taken on January 26 shows that the US military's
Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait has also strengthened
the deployment of air and missile defense weapon
systems, including Patriot missile launchers and
AN/MPQ-65 radar vehicles.
In addition, satellite imagery taken on January 21 shows that
a large number of F-15E fighter jets have been deployed at
Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.
Technical personnel from MizarVision assessed that satellite
imagery dated January 21 - shows a large number of F-15
fighter jets neatly parked at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base
in Jordan, having been redeployed to the base.
Not enough for large-scale action
Despite the US military's continued buildup in the Middle East,
US media observers believe that the current scale of US
forces in the region still appears insufficient to launch
a large-scale military operation against Iran.
A report published on January 28 by The War Zone noted that
there has still been.. no mass influx of US Air Force tactical
airpower into the Middle East. The War Zone wrote, "this
is something we would likely see, if the US intends to
execute a sustained campaign, even if limited in
scope, against Iran. This points to a more
limited operation, unless Israel steps in
to provide its tactical fighter force in
a joint operation."
"Beyond deploying a carrier strike group, the movement of US
strategic bombers — including the B-2 and B-52 — toward the
Middle East would also be an important signal that the US
military may carry out strikes against Iran, and could
even be considered a necessary condition,"
the military expert, Zhang Junshe, told
Global Times on Friday.
Zhang explained that many of Iran's key military facilities and
missile bases are located in underground shelters, and large
cave complexes, with special hardening measures in place.
As a result, conventional air-dropped munitions and precision-
guided weapons have limited effectiveness. The use of large
strategic bombers carrying more specialized weapons —
such as the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator —
would be far more destructive.
"During last year's US 'Midnight Hammer' operation, the US
military employed stealth aircraft to suppress Iran's air
defense systems before dispatching B-2 stealth
bombers to strike Iranian nuclear facilities —
a tactic that, indeed.... caused Iran
significant difficulties," he said.
Based on previous instances in which B-2 stealth bombers were
dispatched to the Middle East for strike missions, there are two
main operational routes. In addition to taking off from the US
mainland and flying directly to Iran with the support of aerial
refueling tankers, another option is to deploy to the US
military base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and
use it as a forward hub for strike operations in the
Middle East.
"If the intention is to launch military action against Iran, Diego
Garcia is indeed an 'ideal location' for deploying B-2 bombers,"
Zhang said. He noted that Diego Garcia is one of the few
overseas military bases capable of hosting B-2 stealth
bombers. Located nearly 4,000 kilometres from Iran,
the base lies within the B-2's operational radius.
Given that Iran's longest-range missile, the Khorramshahr-4, has
a range of just over 2,000 kilometres, deploying bombers there
would also help avoid Iranian missile strikes. Moreover, some
Middle Eastern countries have stated that they will not allow
the United States to use US bases on their territory to carry
out military operations against Iran, further highlighting
Diego Garcia's growing role as a strategic "hub,"
said the expert.
Satellite images taken on January 17 and January 26 and
obtained by Global Times show that only two C-17
transport aircraft were parked at Diego Garcia
during this period, with no signs of additional
military deployments.
Beyond strategic bombers, Zhang said that the US military's
next steps in deploying special operations forces and air
and missile defense assets in the Middle East —
particularly missile defense systems — could
also serve as a key "signal" in assessing
whether Washington is preparing to
take military action.
"Iran possesses a large arsenal of ballistic missiles and attack
drones, which, if launched in large numbers, could pose
serious challenges to US bases in the Middle East and
to Israeli territory," Zhang said. "If the US is
determined to use force against Iran ---- it
would also take preventive measures in
advance... by strengthening defenses
at key locations — for example, by
deploying more THAAD missile
defense systems."
"Iran is clearly drawing lessons from the conflict last June,"
Sun Degang, director of the Centre for Middle East Studies
at Fudan University, told the Global Times. He noted that
srael launched its surprise attack at the time under the
cover of US-Iran nuclear talks, catching Iran off guard.
Now, with Tehran acutely aware of the gathering clouds of war
and having made extensive defensive preparations in advance
-- the difficulty for the US and Israel to mount another surprise
strike has increased significantly, said Sun.
Hard to copy Venezuela action
On January 28 local time, US President Donald Trump posted on
the social media platform Truth Social that a fleet led by the
aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is heading toward Iran,
adding "Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and
able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and
violence, if necessary."
"Operations against Venezuela, focused primarily on forcibly
seizing President Nicolás Maduro ----- whereas Iran's power
structure is not centred on a single individual, making it
difficult to shake the foundations of the regime.... by
targeting only a handful of key figures," Sun said.
According to Sun, US planners have envisioned 3 categories
of targets: first, core clerical figures represented by the Supreme Leader; second, dozens of key military and
political leaders, such as the chief of staff of the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the
commander-in-chief of the armed forces;
and third, strategic assets and facilities
including ballistic missile and drone
storage sites, production plants
and launchers, as well as
nuclear facilities.
The plan would be..... to weaken Iran's core
military capabilities using precision strikes.
However, from a practical standpoint, Sun said it would be
far from easy for the US to overturn the current Iranian
government... through such means alone. Achieving
that goal would inevitably require the deployment
of ground forces, which runs counter to Trump's
stated preference for an operational approach
centred on "air intervention, massive
bombardment, and zero contact."
"As a result, the core objective of this round of US action
is more likely to be to weaken the governing capacity
of Iran," Sun said.
"Iran's national resilience -------- forged through long-term
confrontation with the United States, combined with its
geographic distance from the U.S. homeland, makes it
difficult for Washington to replicate the 'Venezuela
model' in Iran," Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the
Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai
International Studies University, told the
Global Times. He also noted.... that ---
without deploying ground forces,
the ''likelihood'' of the US fully
overthrowing Iran's current
government ---- is low.
Liu further explained that even strikes targeting Iran's senior
leadership through air attacks or special operations would
be unlikely to bring about regime change.
From the perspective of opposition forces, neither domestic
Iranian opposition groups nor the exiled heir of the former
dynasty based in the US can provide Washington with a
viable alternative capable of replacing the current
government. This further increases the difficulty
for the US to topple Iran's ruling establishment
through limited strikes ......or so-called
"decapitation" operations.
Moreover, while it cannot be entirely ruled out that an extreme
decapitation strike by the US could plunge Iran into chaos,
such an uncontrolled outcome is unlikely to be what
Washington ultimately wants to see.
Sun said that if Iran were struck by the US and Israel, Tehran's
resolve and the intensity of its retaliation would far exceed
previous episodes. Compared with the largely symbolic
counterattacks during the conflict last June, Iran's
current leadership — from the Supreme Leader to
the president and foreign minister — has sent
consistently tough signals. They understand
that failure to respond decisively this time
could expose the regime to the risk of
being overturned and pose a fatal
threat to its core interests.
As a result, Iran's retaliation could be more clearly defined
and broader in scope, no longer limited to selective,
symbolic strikes, but potentially directed straight
at the opponent's key personnel and
strategic facilities.
Liu said the US' Middle East strategy ---- remains one of
retrenchment, aimed at avoiding entanglement in a
prolonged war and preventing itself from being
dragged into a full-scale regional conflict
that would be difficult to exit.
In addition, the latest National Security Strategy Report
explicitly calls for reducing US involvement in the
Middle East, no longer providing "public goods"
for the region, and requiring allies to shoulder
......greater responsibilities. These strategic
choices, Liu said --- all point to a relatively
low likelihood that Trump administration
would proactively launch a long-term
war against Iran, said Liu.
___________________________________
Israel to ''partially reopen'' the Rafah
border crossing ....after long closure
January 30th, 6:53pm
(PressTV)
Israel says it will reopen the crucial Rafah crossing between
Gaza and Egypt over the weekend after months of urging
from the UN, humanitarian organizations and ordinary
Palestinians — but only for the "limited movement
of people."
"The Rafah Crossing will open this coming Sunday in both
directions, for limited movement of people only," COGAT,
an Israeli military body overseeing civil affairs in the
occupied Palestinian territories, stated on Friday.
Entry and exit "will be permitted in coordination with Egypt,
following prior security clearance of individuals by Israel,
and under the supervision of the European Union
mission," it added.
It said an additional screening and identification process
will also be conducted at a designated corridor
under Israeli military control.
The crossing, situated on the besieged territory’s southern
border with Egypt, is the only route in and out of Gaza that
does not pass through the Israeli occupied territories.
It lies in territory held by Israeli forces since their pull-back
behind the so-called "Yellow Line" under the terms of a
ceasefire deal that began in October.
The Israeli regime's troops ----- still control
more than half of the besieged Gaza Strip.
Before Israel's announcement, Mirjana Spoljaric, the president
of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), had
called on Friday ------- for the international community to
urgently improve the dire humanitarian conditions
in Gaza.
"The international community must now seize every
opportunity to scale up efforts that alleviate the
suffering in Gaza," Spoljaric said.
"Many people in Gaza - are still living in the rubble
without basic services, struggling to stay warm
amid harsh winter conditions," she stated.
"Thousands of families continue to wait for news about
their loved ones. Hospitals, homes, schools and water
systems need to be repaired, and unexploded
ordnance must be cleared," the ICRC
chief noted.
Spoljaric called on Israel to ease entry restrictions on so-
called dual-use material and equipment, such as water
pipes and generators, to restore basic infrastructure.
The vital link for humanitarian supplies
has been shut -------- for two years.
The gateway is a vital entry point for aid, but has been
closed since Israeli forces took control of it in May
2024 and past bids to reopen it .....have failed
to materialize.
The humanitarian situation in the besieged territory of more
than two million people remains grave, with most of the
population displaced and many living in tents with
little or no sanitation amid harsh winter weather.
Israel moves to restrict Palestinian re-entry
to Gaza, to ‘encourage outflow’: Report
The Israel regime is reportedly seeking to limit the number
of Palestinians re-entering Gaza through the Rafah border
crossing with Egypt.
Meanwhile, Hamas on Friday repeated its call for the
ceasefire’s guarantors to exert “serious pressure”
on Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu,
to prevent him from obstructing the fragile
ceasefire deal.
The Palestinian group once more called on Israel to
immediately reopen the crossing, calling for the
“immediate transition to the second phase”
of the truce.
The core part of the first phase of the plan was completed
after the return of the remains of the last Israeli captive
in Gaza ...earlier this week.
Hamas then called for Israel to complete the implementation
of all the provisions of the ceasefire agreement, “especially
the opening of the Rafah Crossing in both directions -------
without restrictions.”
Hamas, in its Friday statement ------ said that Israel’s continued
shelling of multiple areas across Gaza, along with demolition
operations in parts of the enclave, amounts to terrorism --
and reflects Israel’s blatant disregard for the ceasefire
and its insistence on evading its obligations.
The group pointed to the latest Israeli strike east of the al-
Maghazi refugee camp in central Gaza earlier on Friday,
which killed two young men.
Israeli strikes have killed more than 490 people since
the ceasefire came into force in early October.
More than 71,600 people, mostly women and children,
have been killed in the Israeli genocidal war across
the blockaded Palestinian territory ......since
October 7, 2023.
___________________________________________
Israeli Enemy Pushes Escalation in
Southern Lebanon with Explosive
Attacks, Border Infiltration
January 30th, 11:42am
(al Manar)
Marking a continued escalation, Israeli enemy forces carried
out fresh attacks on south Lebanon on Friday in violation
of the 2024 ceasefire.
Al-Manar correspondent in south Lebanon reported that
an Israeli glider dropped a stun grenade in the western
neighbourhood of Khiam, a southern border town.
Earlier on Friday, the Israeli artillery shelled
Maroun Al-Ras border town, firing flare
bombs on the Jabal Kheil area.
On Thursday evening, a Merkava tank and two enemy military
vehicles advanced towards the eastern area of Yaron border
town. The occupation forces took positions near one of the
houses that they had previously blown up.
Immediately -- a joint patrol of the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL
forces moved towards the area of the incursion amidst the
constant buzz of Israeli drones. A video shows Lebanese
Army and UNIFIL forces --- heading towards the area
where occupation forces forced the incursion.
The Israeli enemy continues to bomb Lebanon --- mainly the
country’s south, almost daily and maintains an occupation
over five posts along the southern border, in violation of a
ceasefire deal reached following the 2024 Israeli war.
At least 440 people have been martyred by Israeli attacks
since November 2024, according to the toll released by
Lebanon’s Health Ministry and updated by Al-Manar.
Enemy forces also stage infiltrations into Lebanese
territory on a daily basis --- blowing up houses in
the border towns.
_____________________________________
Iranian FM in Türkiye: High-Stakes
Talks on Regional Challenges
January 30th, at 10:46am
(al Manar)
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi affirmed upon his
arrival in Istanbul on Friday that regional developments,
particularly proposals from Washington, necessitate
intensified consultations between Tehran
and Ankara.
“This visit was planned some time ago and comes in response
to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s visit to Iran several
months ago,” Araghchi stated, outlining the agenda to
discuss bilateral relations --- alongside pressing
regional and international issues.
He emphasized the enduring close consultations between the
two major neighbours, spanning political, economic, social,
and cultural cooperation. “Regional issues are inherently
highly sensitive,” Araghchi noted -- pointing to serious
existing challenges. He argued that the objectives
put forward by the US and others “necessitate
intensified consultations -- a review of
regional developments, as well as
a coordination of the positions
between the two countries.”
“We will discuss together ways to address these challenges
and the mechanisms for overcoming them,” he added.
Shifting the focus to European policies, Araghchi strongly
criticized the EU’s recent measures against the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps. “The truth is, that Europe
is a continent (sic) in decline, and it has lost its role
on the international stage, losing it - day by day,”
he said.
“What surprises me is that they are contributing to
accelerating this decline,” Araghchi continued.
“This indicates that Europe lacks an accurate understanding
of international circumstances, the reality of our region,
and even its own interests.”
He condemned the EU’s decision as a major strategic mistake,
likening it to the previous error of the so-called “snapback
mechanism,” which, he said, accelerated the decline of
Europe’s regional role.
“I believe that, just as they later admitted their mistake… they
will quickly come to the realization that they have also made
a mistake in this matter.”
The Iranian Foreign Minister was received by Turkish officials,
including the Regional Director General of the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs. During his one-day visit - he is scheduled
to meet with President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan and hold
consultations with his Turkish counterpart --- on their
bilateral relations and regional developments.
_____________________________________
Syrian government, SDF, reach
comprehensive ceasefire,
and integration deal
January 30th, 8:53am
(Al Mayadeen English)
The agreement outlines phased military withdrawals,
the deployment of interior security forces, and an
administrative integration, aimed at stabilizing
northeastern Syria, and restoring Iraqi
state authority.
A comprehensive ceasefire agreement has been reached
between the Syrian government and the Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) - according to a
Syrian government source - marking a
significant step toward military and
administrative integration in
northeastern Syria,
SANA reported.
Under the deal, military forces from both sides will gradually
withdraw from frontline contact points, while security units
affiliated with the Ministry of Interior will deploy inside
the city centres of al-Hasakah and Qamishli.
The agreement ..also outlines the formation of a new military
division incorporating three brigades drawn from the SDF. In
addition, a separate brigade based in Kobani (Ayn al-Arab)
will be established under a division linked to the Aleppo
Governorate, further embedding SDF forces within the
Syrian army’s command framework.
On the administrative level, the deal provides for the integration
of autonomous administration institutions into official Syrian
state bodies, while guaranteeing job security for civilian
employees currently working within those structures.
The agreement... further addresses civil and educational rights
for the Kurdish community and affirms the return of displaced
residents to their original areas.
Officials said the broader aim of the accord, is to unify Syrian
territory, restore state authority, enforce the rule of law, and
advance national reconstruction - through the coordinated
cooperation between all parties involved.
According to Reuters, the SDF confirmed the comprehensive
ceasefire with the Syrian government, including a phased
integration of military and administrative structures into
the state, following recent clashes.
US mediation, shifting dynamics inside Syria
On January 28, Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa held a
lengthy phone call with US President Donald Trump focused on
stabilization efforts, reconstruction, and security cooperation.
Trump.... expressed support for a ceasefire agreement reached
earlier this month between Damascus and the US-backed SDF
and backed the group's integration into Syria’s national
military framework. The January 18th ceasefire,
brokered under US sponsorship after weeks
of clashes in northern Syria, has since
been extended.
SDF commander, Mazloum Abdi, confirmed that talks are
moving toward political rather than militarized solutions
- stressing that international efforts to ease tensions
depend on Damascus' commitment - and the
avoidance of imposed or unacceptable
conditions.
According to Maariv, US officials appear to have confirmed, on
the sidelines of the Paris talks, that the Israeli entity would
refrain from military action against al-Sharaa's forces
should they move against Kurdish groups,
highlighting Washington's central role
...in managing the delicate balance
between the entity and Türkiye.
